Four keys, 2 thoughts and 1 prediction for Alabama vs. LSU in SEC West showdown
The Athletic has live coverage of Alabama vs. LSU in Week 10 of college football action
TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — For the second straight game and third straight week, it’s personal within Alabama’s program. The Crimson Tide host LSU on Saturday, a game that has become known as the perennial, de facto SEC West championship game, and this year’s game holds additional meaning after last season’s 32-31 LSU win.
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Alabama avenged one of its two losses from 2022 a few weeks ago with a convincing win over Tennessee, and after the game, several players, including Chris Braswell, Jase McClellan and Malachi Moore, expressed how much the game meant to them.
Now that the game's over Alabama players on revenge game vs Tennessee:
-Chris Braswell: "It was a personal game for us."
-Malachi Moore: "(Last year) was something we'd been thinking about since we lost."
-Jase McClellan: "I felt like it was, to get that moment back from them."
— Kennington Lloyd Smith III (@SkinnyKenny_) October 22, 2023
That intensity carried over into LSU game preparation.
“This game is very personal for us,” Braswell said. “The whole bye week, we were taking it as a personal matter, and even this week, it’s very personal.”
The stakes Saturday are higher than just the SEC West race. Alabama has one loss and sits at No. 8 in the initial College Football Playoff poll. Reaching the top four is well within reach, but a loss would all but eliminate the team from the national championship hunt, a lesson learned after last year’s LSU loss.
Nick Saban referenced those implications during his weekly appearance on ESPN’s “Pat McAfee Show” on Thursday.
“One loss is different for different teams,” Saban said. “But two losses is a killer in college football.”
Saturday’s prime-time matchup is the finale of an important day in the SEC landscape, and the ramifications will be felt nationally.
Here are four keys, two thoughts and a prediction:
What’s required of Alabama’s offense?
The statistical contrast within this game is stark: LSU’s No. 1 offense nationally against Alabama’s No. 17 defense and Alabama’s 78th-ranked offense against LSU’s 88th-ranked defense. There’s a looming question: Can Alabama’s offense keep pace if LSU’s offense begins to score in bunches? The question is fair, and a closer look reveals optimism for why the answer is yes.
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As sporadic as Alabama’s offense has been, it found success and in stretches looked dominant against three of the top five defenses in the SEC: Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Tennessee. Factor in that Texas is 28th nationally in total defense, and the Crimson Tide have faced some formidable competition and beat all but one. It seems offensive coordinator Tommy Rees is adding more diversity to the playbook weekly, Jalen Milroe’s confidence is growing, and after a bye week, the entire unit is healthy.
What does that mean for the LSU matchup? Alabama’s offense needs to be aggressive.
The Tigers’ defense, particularly in the secondary, is decimated by injuries. Three starters/contributors at cornerback, Zy Alexander, Denver Harris and Duce Chestnut, are out, along with starting defensive lineman Mekhi Wingo. LSU is turning toward highly recruited but inexperienced players like Ashton Stamps, Javien Toviano and Laterrance Welch to fill those voids, although none of them has started a college game.
Alabama’s offense has found its most success this year throwing the ball down the field, and it would make sense if Rees targeted the young defensive backs early. A likely scenario is that LSU will try to play majority zone coverage to protect its secondary, especially because Jermaine Burton and Isaiah Bond have been consistent man-coverage beaters this year.
But that strategy hinges on the defensive front’s getting consistent pressure. LSU generates pressure on 28.4 percent of dropbacks, which ranks 104th nationally, according to TruMedia, and that’s with Wingo. Plus, the Tigers’ defense is 13th in the SEC in rush yards per attempt allowed (4.7).
Ball control will be important, and Alabama’s ability to sustain drives and stay ahead of the chains will dictate how many opportunities LSU’s offense has. A potential X-factor to watch for Alabama is Kendrick Law, and the offense’s Swiss Army knife was pictured in practice this week in the backfield alongside Milroe.
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“He is a little different than some of our other receivers,” Saban said. “He does have a role to play and does a really good job of that. He’s a great special teams player. Really good team guy, hard worker. So I think we’ll try to always have roles for him to play in the game that benefit his skill set and complement the other guys that we’ve got.”
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Neutralize Harold Perkins
LSU’s defense isn’t elite, but linebacker Harold Perkins is good enough to wreck Alabama’s offensive game plan. Perkins has shifted away from primarily playing as a pass-rushing edge and lining up all over the field: He has 162 snaps on the defensive line (edge), 138 snaps in the box as an off-ball linebacker and 144 snaps in the slot masquerading as what would be a star in Alabama’s defense.
Saban said Wednesday there’s no simulating Perkins in practice, so the onus is on the players to watch film. But Alabama’s “good on good” (or the first team offense and defense against each other) has been helpful this week, and players like Caleb Downs have been used at star in those periods to try to simulate a physical, explosive playmaker.
The interesting component is how LSU plans to use Perkins, especially with the injuries on defense. Is it better to turn him loose as a rusher and hope he disrupts the pass game or potentially as the one-man Milroe spy to keep Alabama’s quarterback in check? Regardless, Alabama needs to have a multi-pronged plan to contain him.
An obvious strategy, one Alabama leaned into most against Tennessee, is tight-end chipping. There needs to be constant support on whichever side Perkins lines up on. From a scheme perspective, it would be best to get Perkins thinking as much as possible before the snap by using motions in the backfield. After the snap, using his aggressiveness against him in the run-pass-option game, screen game and misdirections on the ground can keep him on his toes. Perkins will make plays, but limiting him to the point where he’s not single-handedly breaking the offense is critical.
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LSU will stretch Alabama’s defense
Last week’s coordinator analysis revealed that Alabama’s defense is in its nickel package (five defensive backs) or its de facto base defense look 86 percent of the time, according to TruMedia. But LSU’s offense will force more variation. LSU lines up with three wide receivers more than 90 percent of the time, but that doesn’t account for the fact tight end Mason Taylor lines up as a wide receiver on 43 percent of his snaps. That means the Tigers’ offense is frequently in formations that resemble four wide receivers.
Alabama could counter that by bringing down one safety and leaving the other as a single-high man. But the most likely scenario is that Alabama plays its dime package (six defensive backs) more often, which means a big opportunity for secondary players Trey Amos and Kristian Story and outside linebacker Quandarrius Robinson.
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The Tigers’ robust combination of pre-snap motions and route combinations will test the communication efficiency of Alabama’s defense, an issue the unit ran into against Texas. Having additional defensive backs on the field also puts an onus on the emphasis of shedding blocks in the run game. Because there will be a challenge of having the right number of defenders to defend the pass or run, Alabama defenders need to win in one-on-one blocking situations. LSU’s offense is spread foundationally, but how it runs the ball on the perimeter is almost triple option-esque due to the zone option, the quarterback and a blocker or receiver in an RPO in the flat.
Last year’s game-winning touchdown for LSU encompasses all of these challenges into one play: Pre-snap motion shifted the defense, and LSU ran a zone read in the opposite direction. Jayden Daniels kept, the running back became the blocker in the flat, and on the perimeter, great blocking cleared the way for an easy touchdown. The touchdown could’ve been prevented by Dallas Turner’s making the tackle initially, highlighting how important open-field tackling will be Saturday.
The 60-minute mentality
Alabama largely reached this point in the season with dominant stretches that overpower opponents, but Saturday’s game will require the full 60 minutes. It has been a consistent theme throughout the season and is a priority coming out of the bye week. Saban said the team needs immediacy, intensity and intelligence sustained for the entire game. Home-field advantage should help. The effects of the Tennessee game are still being felt inside the program.
Saban and players have talked about the atmosphere that affected the Volunteers and are calling for the same energy, if not more, Saturday.
The margin of error in this game, against an offense as potent as LSU’s, is small. Alabama cannot afford a lethargic start and play catch-up. Good plays by LSU are inevitable, but Alabama needs to be engaged from the beginning and remain that way throughout. Repeating its performance in penalties, which cost the team dearly last season, is another key.
“The most important thing is (LSU) is going to make good plays and we’re going to make good plays,” Saban said. “But we have to respond on the next play no matter what happened on the last play. We made a good play, we have to respond on the next play. We gave up a play, we have to respond on the next play. That’s on offense, that’s on defense.”

Keep in mind …
This could be the last of the yearly scheduled Alabama-LSU games. The long-term SEC scheduling format is to be determined, and there are floating scenarios of nine conference games (three permanent opponents) or eight games with one permanent opponent and seven rotating teams. In the second format, Auburn likely would be Alabama’s permanent rival. This week, Brian Kelly said he and the LSU athletic department have expressed a desire to the SEC to play the game annually.
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When asked, Saban expressed the same.
“I think this is a great game that has tremendous fan interest,” Saban said. “It’s been a great game for however long I’ve been here. They’ve got a great atmosphere, and we’ve got a great atmosphere at our stadium. Both fan bases look forward to the game. I think as many of these fan-interest, rivalry games, whatever you want to call them, that we can keep over time is beneficial to the conference and beneficial to the players who play the game.”
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Player we’ll be talking about Sunday
Downs. The freshman phenom is second in the SEC in solo tackles (39) and is the team leader in total tackles (63) and interceptions (two). His confidence is growing by the week, and Saturday’s game can serve as a bit of redemption from the loss to Texas. That game was particularly tough for Downs, who gave up some big plays as he was targeted heavily by Texas’ offense in his second career game.
Several weeks later, he’ll be in a similar position, and he’ll have to communicate well, be decisive and correct with his post-snap reads to cover LSU’s diverse route tree. In a game during which LSU needs Daniels to be special, it sets the table for a pivotal Downs performance.
Prediction
The second leg of the revenge tour is here, and the good news for Alabama is the team is at full tilt. The bye week served the team well, and all indications are that there won’t be any significant player limitations. LSU certainly has the offense to be dangerous, but Alabama’s offense likely will score on LSU’s shaky defense. Ball control, hitting explosives when needed and keeping Daniels from becoming equally dangerous in the run and pass are key.
Alabama’s defense in the rush lanes has been a concern, but this year’s inside linebackers (Deontae Lawson, Jihaad Campbell and Trezmen Marshall) are better equipped to chase down Daniels. Another Alabama-LSU classic is coming, and Alabama will ride the home crowd to a narrow win.
Alabama 31, LSU 30.
(Top photo of Jalen Milroe: Gary Cosby Jr. / USA Today)
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